- Middle East crude exports moved above pre-war levels on several days in late September, but tanker attacks, rerouted shipments and elevated transportation costs show that global oil markets have not returned to normal.
Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to above their pre-war level on several days despite continued attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, according to provisional shipping data from Kpler.
Regional crude exports reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on Sept. 24 and from Sept. 27 through Sept. 29, compared with a pre-war average of about 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on Oct. 1.
The recovery has helped ease some of the immediate supply pressure that pushed oil prices sharply higher during the conflict. Brent crude was around $101.59 a barrel on Oct. 4, while US West Texas Intermediate was about $90.05, as markets responded to stronger Middle Eastern flows and plans by G7 countries to release emergency oil stocks.
Gulf Oil Flows Recover as Export Routes Change
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that oil flows through the waterway averaged 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, equivalent to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.
The latest recovery has reduced the region's dependence on the strait. Kpler estimates that roughly 40% of Middle East Gulf crude is now bypassing Hormuz, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates using pipeline infrastructure and alternative terminals to keep exports moving.
Saudi Arabia has been particularly important to the recovery. Its East-West pipeline connects oil fields in the kingdom's east with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing crude to reach international markets without passing through Hormuz. The pipeline resumed operations on Sept. 22 after being disrupted earlier in the month.
The UAE has a similar option through its pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi's oil fields with Fujairah, a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA estimates that Saudi and UAE pipeline systems together could provide about 4.7 million barrels per day of bypass capacity.
That flexibility helps explain why Middle East crude exports have recovered even though the conflict and security risks have continued.
Shipping activity through the region has also become more complicated. Kpler said ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have increased, allowing cargoes to be moved between vessels outside the most exposed sections of the route. The company said most crude that continues through Hormuz changes tankers offshore.
Liquefied natural gas shipments have also increased. Al Jazeera, citing Kpler data, reported that LNG cargoes leaving through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly level since February in September. The shift is significant for oil markets because higher export volumes do not necessarily mean lower transportation costs or a return to normal shipping conditions.
Oil Prices Stay High Despite Stronger Exports
The continued security risk is one reason the improvement in physical oil flows has not produced a corresponding collapse in crude prices. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden beginning Oct. 2, according to Reuters. Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also said on Oct. 5 that the Strait would remain closed until the US accepts Tehran's proposed seven-day plan for reopening it.
Iranian officials have disputed the significance of the increased flows. IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said only about 3 million to 4 million barrels per day were moving through the US-supervised route in Hormuz, describing the volume as negligible compared with pre-war traffic.
The competing claims highlight why traders are paying close attention not only to the amount of oil being exported but also to the reliability and cost of the routes being used.
Reuters reported that tanker freight rates from the Middle East to Asia have risen dramatically as the market adapts to longer routes, offshore transfers and higher security requirements. Those logistical costs have become an important component of delivered crude prices even as export volumes recover.
That dynamic has already been visible in the market. Brent crude recently moved above $100 as investors weighed Middle East supply risks, while oil prices subsequently retreated as Gulf exports improved and governments prepared additional emergency supplies.
The OPEC+ response is another factor. On Oct. 4, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed to maintain their September production levels for November, according to OPEC. The group is scheduled to review market conditions again on Nov. 1.
The G7 has separately agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, adding another source of supply to a market still dealing with disrupted logistics.
For investors and consumers, the latest data therefore presents a mixed picture. The sharp recovery in Middle East exports reduces the immediate risk of a prolonged crude shortage, but it does not remove the security, shipping and refining constraints that have kept energy prices elevated.
That distinction has already affected the broader market, with oil prices falling as Middle East crude exports recovered while shipping risks remained high.
The latest figures suggest the Gulf oil industry has found ways to keep barrels moving despite the conflict. Whether that recovery can continue without further attacks, higher transportation costs, or renewed disruption to alternative routes remains the key issue for global energy markets.