- Middle East crude exports are recovering toward pre-conflict levels as Gulf producers restore alternative routes and more tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz, but oil prices remain elevated because shipping constraints and geopolitical risks have not been resolved.
Crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers are recovering after months of disruption, with September shipments expected to reach 12.8 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters.
The figure is the highest since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February, but remains about 6 million barrels per day below the 18.8 million barrels per day recorded before the conflict. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to reach roughly 7.4 million barrels per day in September.
The rebound comes as Gulf producers have expanded alternative routes and more tankers have resumed voyages through the strategic waterway. The Wall Street Journal's latest report on the recovery in Middle East oil exports describes how Gulf producers and the US Navy have improved measures to keep oil moving despite continuing threats around Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has been a major contributor to the recovery. Kpler estimates that Saudi crude exports could reach 5.4 million barrels per day in September, more than double the 2.446 million barrels per day recorded in August. Shipments from the country's Ras Tanura terminal also increased sharply during the month. Yet the recovery has not eliminated the underlying supply problem.
Saudi Arabia Restores Red Sea Route as Hormuz Flows Recover
Saudi Arabia has also restarted crude loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu after restoring operations on the East-West Pipeline, according to Reuters. The pipeline had been shut since Sept. 11 following drone attacks. Saudi Aramco has resumed customer loadings from Yanbu at roughly 2 million barrels per day, while Kpler estimates pipeline throughput at about 2.65 million barrels per day, with the potential to increase toward 3 million to 4 million barrels per day. The pre-attack capacity was about 5.5 million barrels per day.
The reopening gives Saudi Arabia an additional route to move crude toward the Red Sea without relying entirely on the Strait of Hormuz. This is important because shipping through Hormuz remains below normal levels. Before the conflict, the waterway typically handled about 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply, making any prolonged disruption a major risk for global energy markets.
The latest developments also show why oil supply disruptions remain a key driver of crude prices. Even with more barrels moving, producers still face longer routes, higher transportation costs and security risks. The market response has been particularly visible in crude prices.
Brent crude futures for November settled Monday at $105.16 a barrel, according to Reuters, after initially jumping more than $4 following President Donald Trump's rejection of an Iranian proposal that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $93.69 a barrel.
Both benchmarks moved higher again Tuesday. Brent November futures reached $106.99, while WTI rose to around $94, as traders continued to assess the risk of further supply disruptions. The CNBC report on Monday's oil-price move also highlighted the market's sensitivity to developments involving Trump, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil Supply Is Recovering, But the Market Remains Vulnerable
The recovery in exports does not necessarily mean the oil market has returned to normal. September shipments from the key Middle Eastern producers remain substantially below pre-conflict volumes. The higher exports also depend partly on rerouting and the restoration of infrastructure rather than a full return to normal shipping conditions.
The resumption of Yanbu shipments provides additional flexibility for Saudi Arabia, while higher flows through Hormuz are allowing more Gulf oil to reach international buyers. But both routes remain exposed to regional security risks.
The Bloomberg Middle East and Africa update comes as markets continue to assess the impact of the changing oil-flow picture on the wider regional economy.
The diplomatic situation remains another variable. Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal over the weekend, although Qatari mediators said they would continue efforts to bring the US and Iran together. Reuters reported that oil prices initially fell back from their early-session highs Monday as traders considered the possibility of further talks.
On one side, Middle East exports are recovering, Saudi Arabia is restoring pipeline capacity, and more oil is leaving Gulf terminals. On the other, Hormuz traffic remains constrained, alternative routes are more expensive, and uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict continues to create a supply-risk premium. The tension explains why crude prices can remain above $100 even as physical exports improve.
For now, the latest data point to a partial recovery rather than a return to pre-conflict conditions. Middle East exports are approaching 13 million barrels per day, but they remain well below February's levels, while the security situation around Hormuz continues to determine how much oil can move reliably.
The next key developments for oil markets will be the pace of Saudi pipeline recovery, the volume of tankers safely passing through Hormuz, and whether US-Iran diplomacy produces an agreement capable of restoring normal shipping conditions.