- Bank of America says SpaceX’s push into wireless services could eventually pressure Apple’s iPhone sales and pricing power, with analyst Wamsi Mohan estimating that a 10% shift of major US carrier subscribers to SpaceX could put about 5 million annual iPhone sales at risk.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) faces a potential new competitive threat as SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) expands Starlink beyond satellite internet, according to a Bank of America analysis. Analyst Wamsi Mohan identified three possible pressure points: wireless-carrier subsidies that support iPhone purchases, a potential competing device and a more integrated technology ecosystem built around SpaceX, Tesla and the Grok artificial intelligence platform.
The warning follows SpaceX’s agreement to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band wireless spectrum, a move that could help Starlink develop a broader mobile service in the US. The transaction signals a more direct challenge to established carriers, although building a competitive wireless business will take time and the longer-term impact on Apple remains uncertain.
The key issue for Apple is not simply whether Starlink attracts wireless customers. It is whether a change in how Americans buy mobile service could weaken the promotional offers that help consumers afford premium iPhones.
How Starlink Mobile Could Affect iPhone Sales and Carrier Subsidies
Mohan estimated that about 53 million iPhones are sold annually through AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, with a blended promotional credit of roughly $800 per device. These offers can lower the upfront cost of an iPhone or spread discounts across a customer’s wireless plan.
If 10% of the three carriers’ postpaid subscribers moved to SpaceX, Apple could lose around 5 million iPhone sales a year, representing approximately $6 billion in revenue, Mohan estimated. That is a scenario, not a forecast of confirmed losses. SpaceX has not demonstrated that it can capture that share of the US wireless market.
The risk would depend partly on how Starlink structures its service. If customers switching to SpaceX no longer receive comparable handset subsidies, some could delay upgrading their phones or choose less expensive devices. Apple could also face pressure if traditional carriers reduce promotions to protect their margins.
There is a counterpoint: established carriers may respond to new competition with more aggressive offers to retain subscribers. Mohan said stronger promotions could support iPhone upgrades in the near term, even if the competitive threat grows over time.
SpaceX’s spectrum strategy is part of a broader push into mobile connectivity. The company’s planned expansion of Starlink’s wireless capabilities follows its acquisition plans for low-band spectrum, which could complement satellite coverage with terrestrial network infrastructure. The deal remains subject to regulatory approval, and the company still faces substantial execution challenges before it can operate as a nationwide mobile rival.
Could a SpaceX Device and AI Ecosystem Challenge Apple?
Mohan identified a second potential risk if SpaceX eventually develops a competing smartphone. Such a device could combine mobile connectivity with services from SpaceX, Tesla and xAI, including Grok. That could create an alternative to Apple’s tightly integrated hardware, software and services ecosystem.
However, SpaceX has not announced a smartphone launch. The possibility of a competing device remains speculative, and Starlink’s planned mobile service does not require customers to abandon their existing iPhones. Yahoo Finance reported that Starlink Mobile is designed to work with unmodified handsets, meaning many customers could use the service while continuing to own Apple devices.
The third concern is the potential combination of connectivity, hardware and AI services. If SpaceX develops a more integrated consumer technology platform, it could compete with Apple for customer attention and spending. But the extent of that threat would depend on products and services that have not yet been fully established.
The competitive backdrop is already changing. SpaceX’s wireless ambitions have unsettled investors in traditional telecom companies, as discussed in this report on the implications of its spectrum deal for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. For Apple, the possible effects are less direct: a shift in wireless distribution or pricing could influence iPhone sales even if SpaceX never launches its own handset.
Mohan maintained a Buy rating on Apple and a $370 price target in the report. His warning therefore points to a longer-term competitive risk rather than an immediate downgrade of the company’s investment outlook. The analyst’s scenario also depends on SpaceX gaining customers and changing the economics of the US wireless market.
For Apple investors, the next developments to watch are regulatory approval for SpaceX’s spectrum transaction, details of Starlink Mobile’s service and pricing, and any evidence that carrier promotions or iPhone upgrade patterns are changing. Until those developments become clearer, the estimated $6 billion revenue exposure should be treated as a potential downside scenario, not an expected loss.
The central question is whether SpaceX can turn its satellite network and spectrum holdings into a mobile business large enough to change how consumers buy phones and wireless plans. Bank of America has outlined the possible risks to Apple, but the scale of any eventual impact remains uncertain.