Historical Data Says XRP Price Is About To Surge in July With Green Third Quarter

The XRP Price looks to be entering one of its historically strongest periods of the year, with seasonality data showing that July has consistently delivered positive returns for the cryptocurrency. This comes as XRP is about to end a challenging first half of the year, where its price crashed toward the $1 cycle support. 

XRP Price History Suggests July Could Reverse Months of Weakness

According to historical data on the CryptoRank website, July has traditionally been one of XRP's better-performing months, usually performing best after a difficult first and second quarter. In 2026, the XRP price declined by 27.1% during the first quarter and fell another 22.4% in the second quarter, culminating in an almost 50% drop in the first half of the year.

However, this declining trend may be coming to an end, taking into account the seasonal pattern that has previously fueled a rally in the market. Historical market data indicate that the XRP Price has frequently performed well in July, making it one of the token's strongest seasonal months.

July has historically averaged gains of roughly 10.2% over previous years, although individual performances have varied significantly. In some years, the XRP price recorded gains exceeding 47%. But in weaker market conditions, it experienced declines of more than 30%, so the seasonality does not always play out in favor of the bulls.

Nevertheless, the current market setup closely mirrors previous years when the XRP price entered July after suffering substantial losses during the year's opening months, especially in June. Historically, those prolonged corrections have sometimes been followed by renewed buying interest as investors repositioned their portfolios for the second half of the year.

It is also important to note that, on average, the third quarter of the year has not recorded the highest average returns. The last quarter has actually been the most bullish, with an average return of 133.3%. CryptoRank’s data shows an average return of 18.2% for Q3. But it is the quarter with the highest number of green closes for the cryptocurrency.

Breaking Down July’s Average Returns

According to the data available, the XRP price has not closed the month of July in the red for six years straight. Since 2020, despite its ongoing battles with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), XRP has recorded six consecutive years of green closes, with most years seeing an average of 20% returns.

Most of these six years have actually been preceded by the month of June ending in the red. In the last six years, only June 2025 has ended in the green, with meagre returns of 2.95%. The other months suffered around 10% in average losses, making it one of the most bearish months in the history of the XRP price. 

June 2026 looks on track to end with double-digit losses, having dropped around 20% already so far. So, if this trend holds and the XRP price follows the same trajectory as previous years, then the month of July could see the XRP price surge again. Going by the average returns, it would mean that the XRP price would at least cross $1.1.

Recovering network metrics could also play a big role in the XRP price surging. As Wealthier Today reported, the XRP Ledger saw a 71% spike in active addresses. This suggests that users may be returning to the blockchain once again, and this spike could lead to a surge in price.

Datasets are also pointing to XRP investors holding steady amid the price decline. This is even while liquidation volumes continue to surge at this time. So, while historical performance does not guarantee future gains, there is a possibility that the XRP price can repeat its pattern of third-quarter recoveries.