Citigroup Has Cut Its Bitcoin And Ethereum Targets: ETF Flows Are Much More Important

Citibank has now cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000, down from $112,000 in March, while reducing its Ether target to $2,240 from $3,175. Those revisions are a result of a deteriorating bullish sentiment in the crypto market, and the bank is also looking at the current state of ETF flows.

New Targets For Bitcoin And Ethereum

Analysts at Citi have decided to cut the assumed net crypto ETF inflows over the next 12 months to zero, down from a prior estimate of $10 billion, effectively removing one of the biggest pillars supporting its previous Bitcoin and Ether price targets. 

For context, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted about $4.51 billion in net outflows in June alone, the worst monthly performance since the products launched in January 2024. Citi noted that Bitcoin ETF flows are down about $3.3 billion year-to-date, while Spot Ether ETFs have followed with steady withdrawals.

Furthermore, the bank's research also quantified just how sensitive prices have become to this single variable, estimating that $100 million in ETF inflows corresponds to roughly a 53 basis point same-day move in Bitcoin's price. Now, Citi is targeting $82,000 over the next 12 months for Bitcoin, with its bear case placing the leading cryptocurrency at $53,000, while Ether could fall to $1,094 if recessionary conditions combine with continued ETF outflows.

Citi’s Forecast Journey Shows How Quickly Conviction Can Change

Citi's Bitcoin and Ethereum price predictions are the latest cut in a series of increasingly cautious revisions. Back in October 2025, Citi expected Bitcoin to end that year around $132,000 to $133,000 and projected a 12-month target of roughly $181,000. 

At the time, ETF demand, institutional adoption, and the prospect of clearer US rules in the Clarity Act were supporting a view that Bitcoin could continue attracting large pools of capital. In December, Citi’s 12-month Bitcoin target had fallen to $143,000. 

Citi's Bitcoin bullish target has now been cut twice in 2026: first from $143,000 to $112,000 in March, then to $82,000 this week. Ether's target has followed the same downward path, from $4,304 to $3,175 and now to $2,240.

Citi's revised prediction note also leans heavily on the stalled state of the CLARITY Act, the market structure legislation that has spent much of 2026 inching toward, and then away from, a Senate floor vote. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 vote in mid-May and was formally placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, putting it, on paper, within reach of a floor vote before the August recess.

Prediction markets that had priced the odds of the bill passing in 2026 near 60% have since drifted lower. Kalshi now has the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law before 2027 at 44%.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $60,757, which is less than half its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080.