The XRP price is back in the prediction spotlight after an X post argued that banks and large institutions could push the token above $10,000 and leave retail investors unable to build meaningful positions.
Retail Would Be Locked Out When XRP Price Moves
The claim came from XRP commentator XRPMoonWalk, whose core argument is simple: once institutional demand arrives in size, the XRP price would move so quickly that smaller buyers would be priced out. As a result, the crypto analyst believes a move to $10,000 would be "child's play" for banks and said retail would be "forever locked out."
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The validity of this prediction is still up for debate, given how much the XRP market cap would need to be at a price of $10,000. Data from CoinMarketCap lists XRP near $1.14 on at the time of this report, with a circulating supply of about 62.05 billion XRP and a market cap of about $70.6 billion. At the current circulating supply, a $10 XRP price tag would imply a roughly $620.5 billion in market cap, a $20 price tag would imply about a $1.24 trillion market cap, and a $10,000 price tag would mean the market cap would have to rise to around $620.5 trillion.
The claim drew a lot of criticism from the crypto community, who pointed out the folly of the prediction. One reply highlighted that even a $10 to $20 XRP price tag could make it difficult for many retail buyers to accumulate large holdings, making it a stronger argument than the $10,000 number.
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At the current price of $1.14, a 1,000 XRP position costs roughly $1,140. At $10, the same position costs $10,000. At $20, it costs $20,000. At $10,000 XRP, that position would cost $10 million.
That does not mean retail would literally be unable to buy XRP, as crypto assets can be bought fractionally, just as investors can buy fractional exposure to Bitcoin. However, the stronger version of the lockout argument is that smaller investors may still get access, but their ability to build life-changing position sizes would shrink as the XRP price rises.
Why Institutions Still Matter
There is a reason XRP supporters focus on banks, and this is because the XRP Ledger has a fixed maximum supply of 100 billion XRP, and its design is built around fast settlement. This means if banks begin to adopt XRP for settlements, it would drastically reduce the available supply, and this scarcity could trigger a rapid price rise.
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The regulatory backdrop also matters, given that a 2023 court ruling in favor of Ripple against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) found XRP itself was not a security, although the ruling states Ripple's institutional sales had violated securities law.
This isn't the first time that an analyst has called for the XRP price to reach $10,000. The claim had gotten popular to the point that it drew the attention of Ripple CTO, David Schwartz, who dismissed the claims earlier in May. Schwartz explained that if there were a large group of ultra-wealthy individuals looking to push the XRP price to $10,000, they would have already pushed the price to $20 by now. However, the altcoin's price continues to trade below $2, with an all-time high peak of $3.84, which was last seen in 2018.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.