- Glassnode says Bitcoin's market structure has improved as BTC moves above key cost bases, ETF buying returns, and spot volume rebounds, with $96,700 emerging as the next major on-chain resistance.
Bitcoin price analysis from Glassnode points to $96,700 as the next major resistance level after BTC moved above a large long-term holder supply zone around $84,000-$85,000.
In its Sept. 23 Week On-chain report, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved back above the cost bases that had restricted its recovery during 2026. At the same time, profit-taking remains relatively light, US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have picked up, and spot trading volume has more than doubled from its August low.
The report's key levels are straightforward: $77,000 represents major support, $84,000-$85,000 is the important long-term holder supply zone, and $95,000-$97,000 is the next major area of resistance.
What Glassnode's Bitcoin On-Chain Data Says About the Price
Glassnode said Bitcoin never closed below its Realized Price during the current bear-market phase. While the percentage of supply in profit fell to levels comparable to the November 2022 low, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, remained positive.
That is different from previous major Bitcoin bear markets. In 2018-19 and 2022-23, BTC traded below its Realized Price for extended periods. This time, the June low remained above that level. Glassnode said that if Bitcoin continues to hold above its True Market Mean near $77,000, the June low would represent the shallowest of those three bear-market declines.
The most immediate on-chain level is the $84,000-$85,000 long-term holder supply zone. Bitcoin has now moved above that area. Glassnode identifies the mean MVRV price near $96,700 as the next major resistance because it represents the level where the average holder's unrealized profit returns to its long-term norm.
Options positioning reinforces that range. Glassnode said positive gamma around $95,000 has increased while negative gamma has built between spot and roughly $92,000. Dealer hedging can accelerate moves below that area while potentially slowing price action near $95,000.
That puts $95,000-$97,000 in focus as Bitcoin's next major test if the rally continues. A move back below $84,000 would instead put the $77,000 True Market Mean back in focus.
Why Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Spot Volume Matter
The improvement in Bitcoin's market structure is also visible in market demand.
Glassnode said US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.3 billion of inflows over the five days following the latest squeeze, reversing two weeks of net outflows. The latest daily inflow was the largest since the beginning of July.
Spot Bitcoin volume has also recovered. Glassnode measured a 121% increase in 24-hour spot volume from the August trough as Bitcoin prices moved higher.
The firm considers the direction of that volume particularly important. During the decline from late 2025 through mid-2026, major increases in spot volume occurred as Bitcoin prices fell, consistent with periods of capitulation. The August increase was different because volume expanded while price was rising.
The recovery is not yet back to last year's levels. Glassnode said the seven-day average of spot volume remains roughly 30% below its level a year ago, suggesting that activity has recovered from a relatively depressed base rather than returned to the conditions of 2025.
The broader crypto market is participating as well. About 72.5% of Glassnode's tracked altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over the past week, compared with a peak of 39% during the August squeeze. At the same time, altcoin perpetual-futures open interest has barely increased over the past 30 days, indicating that the broader move has not been accompanied by a comparable rise in leverage.
Taken together, Glassnode's latest Bitcoin on-chain data shows a market that has improved from the conditions seen earlier in 2026, but the report does not establish that Bitcoin is guaranteed to continue higher.
For now, $84,000-$85,000 is the key area to hold, $77,000 is the deeper support level, and $95,000-$97,000 is the next major resistance zone identified by Glassnode. ETF demand, spot volume, and profit-taking will be important indicators of whether the current recovery develops into a more durable trend.