XRP could face another decline before a larger market move develops, according to Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, who has identified $0.97 as a key downside level to watch if selling pressure intensifies.
In a post on X published October 24, Vandell argued that XRP's long-term prospects could improve significantly if the next phase of the global debt cycle triggers a major liquidity response. However, he cautioned that investors should not assume the cryptocurrency has already reached its market bottom.
The comments offer a more cautious near-term outlook than a straightforward bullish price prediction. Vandell sees the possibility of a substantially higher future valuation for XRP, but his analysis leaves room for another correction before that scenario plays out.
Vandell Identifies $0.97 as a Key XRP Price Level
Vandell's analysis draws on a long-term XRP/USD chart covering price movements from 2017 through 2026. The chart shows XRP trading below its previous cycle peaks while remaining above an upward-sloping trendline that tracks its longer-term price structure.
At the time of the analysis, the chart placed XRP at approximately $1.31. Vandell's view was that the cryptocurrency could experience further weakness without necessarily invalidating his longer-term expectations.
The $0.97 level emerged during a discussion beneath his post. After one commenter suggested XRP could fall to $0.80, Vandell responded that the largest concentration of leveraged XRP positions vulnerable to liquidation was around $0.97.
Liquidation occurs when an exchange forcibly closes a leveraged position after a trader's available collateral becomes insufficient to support it. Large concentrations of such positions can become relevant during sharp price movements, although a liquidation level does not establish that the market will reach that price.
Vandell's comments therefore identify $0.97 as a level he is monitoring rather than a confirmed price target. XRP could remain above it or move through it depending on market conditions, trading activity and broader cryptocurrency sentiment.
The analysis also reflects a wider debate about the relationship between XRP's price and global liquidity. Vandell has previously argued that scarcity and market narratives can influence cryptocurrency valuations even without a corresponding increase in adoption.
XRP's Bigger Move Depends on Liquidity Conditions
Vandell's longer-term outlook centres on the possibility that the next phase of the global debt cycle will require a substantial liquidity response. He believes such a shift could lead markets to assign XRP a significantly different valuation from its current level.
However, his thesis is conditional. A future increase in liquidity is not guaranteed to produce a particular XRP price, and broader financial conditions do not affect every cryptocurrency in the same way.
Investors also face uncertainty over the timing of any potential market shift. Vandell did not establish when XRP might begin a sustained advance or provide a confirmed price target for the longer-term scenario in the cited analysis.
The distinction between short-term price risk and long-term expectations is important in a volatile cryptocurrency market. Even if XRP eventually benefits from stronger liquidity, traders could still face losses during an intervening decline.
XRP's price will also depend on factors beyond macroeconomic liquidity. Investor demand, cryptocurrency market sentiment, regulatory developments and actual use of the XRP Ledger can all influence how the token trades. Historical chart patterns can provide context, but they cannot reliably predict future returns.
For now, Vandell's assessment combines a bullish longer-term thesis with a warning that downside risk may remain. The $0.97 level is a potential area of interest for traders watching leveraged positions, not evidence that XRP must fall to that price. Likewise, the possibility of a larger future move remains his market opinion rather than an established outcome.