- Europe is expected to pursue digital sovereignty more aggressively next year, but Forrester says companies and policymakers will selectively reduce foreign technology dependencies rather than attempt a full separation.
Europe is heading into 2027 with a stronger push for digital sovereignty, but Forrester expects the region to stop short of severing its most important technology relationships.
In its latest 2027 European technology predictions, released Sept. 30 at its Technology & Innovation Forum EMEA, Forrester said more than half of European companies using AI will reduce their reliance on US hyperscalers because of sovereignty concerns. The research firm expects critical data and applications to shift toward European providers where viable.
The forecast comes as the European Union is already pursuing policies designed to strengthen control over cloud infrastructure, AI and other strategic technologies. The European Commission's technology sovereignty program includes initiatives covering semiconductors, cloud, AI and open-source technology.
Forrester's central argument is that Europe's sovereignty push will be selective. The region does not currently have enough end-to-end alternatives to replace every major US technology provider, meaning companies will have to balance control against cost, flexibility and access to advanced technology.
Europe’s Cloud And AI Dependence Creates A Difficult Reset
Cloud computing is one of the clearest examples of the challenge. The European Commission said in June that more than half of EU businesses rely on cloud services and described cloud infrastructure as a prerequisite for AI. It also identified Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure as the largest and second-largest cloud services in the EU and said both appeared to have entrenched positions in the market.
That dependence is helping drive new European investment. The Commission's proposed Cloud and AI Development Act aims to at least triple EU data-center capacity over the next five to seven years while creating a framework for assessing cloud and AI sovereignty.
The issue also intersects with the economics of the global AI buildout. US hyperscalers are committing enormous amounts of capital to computing infrastructure, while European companies and governments face the challenge of developing alternative capacity without losing access to advanced AI services.
That creates a different backdrop for European AI stocks, particularly semiconductor-equipment and infrastructure companies that benefit from continued investment in computing capacity.
Forrester's forecast therefore does not amount to a prediction that European companies will abandon US technology. Instead, it points toward a more fragmented procurement environment in which organizations may keep global providers for some workloads while moving sensitive or strategically important operations to European infrastructure.
The European Commission's 2026 State of the Digital Decade report reinforces the scale of the challenge. It says 46.7% of EU enterprises used cloud computing in 2026, while nearly 20% used AI. The Commission also said dependencies on non-EU suppliers remain significant in cloud services and other strategic technologies.
China, Robotaxis And Consumer Behavior Add New Pressure
Forrester's 2027 outlook extends beyond cloud and AI. The firm expects China's next export wave, including electric vehicle batteries, solar components and manufactured parts, to increase pressure on European industry before policymakers respond with stronger tariffs and safeguards.
Europe already has trade measures affecting Chinese electric vehicles. The European Commission imposed definitive countervailing duties ranging from 7.8% to 35.3% on Chinese battery-electric vehicles in 2024, with those measures still in force.
Autonomous vehicles represent another area where Europe's technology relationships are becoming more complicated. Forrester expects Chinese and US robotaxi providers to compete alongside European companies on European roads in 2027.
That prediction is already beginning to take shape. Alphabet's Waymo has started preparing for autonomous-vehicle testing in Munich, while Chinese autonomous-driving company Momenta is conducting trials there and has said it plans to expand its European operations.
The European Commission has also launched an initiative supporting autonomous mobility deployments across EU cities, including robotaxis, while 18 member states have backed cross-border testbeds for autonomous vehicles.
Forrester also predicts a behavioral shift among UK teenagers, with roughly one-quarter expected to embrace digital restraint as a form of identity and self-expression. The firm says reduced connectivity could become a new way for younger consumers to signal discipline and status.
Taken together, the forecasts point to a European technology market shaped less by outright separation than by selective control. Companies may seek greater sovereignty over sensitive data, infrastructure and critical applications while continuing to use foreign technology where alternatives remain limited or economically attractive.
For investors and technology companies, that could make Europe's sovereignty drive less about replacing every US or Chinese provider and more about determining which parts of the technology stack Europe considers too strategically important to leave entirely in foreign hands.