- SpaceX stock has recovered above its June IPO price after a sharp rebound, but returning to its $225.64 record high would require another substantial move from current levels.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) has regained ground after a steep post-IPO decline, putting the stock back above its initial public offering price and renewing attention on whether Elon Musk's company can eventually retest its early trading record.
SpaceX closed at $167.60 on Oct. 7, according to recent SPCX trading data. That leaves the stock about 24% above its $135 IPO price, but roughly 26% below its June 16 intraday record of $225.64.
The distinction is important for investors following the SpaceX stock story. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share before trading began on June 12, while the stock opened at $150. The company ultimately raised approximately $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their full overallotment option.
The stock's rebound has coincided with renewed investor interest in SpaceX's Starlink business, launch operations, and expanding artificial-intelligence ambitions.
Why SpaceX Stock Has Recovered From Its IPO Dip
SpaceX shares initially surged after the IPO before falling sharply during the following weeks. The stock traded as low as roughly $105 in July before recovering toward the $150-$170 range in recent sessions. The latest rally accelerated after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. Jonas argued that SpaceX looks more attractive when its expected growth is incorporated into the valuation rather than judged solely by its headline multiple.
Morgan Stanley's valuation gives substantial weight to SpaceX's existing rocket-launch and Starlink operations while also assigning value to its developing AI business. Jonas estimated SpaceX at roughly 30 times projected 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, compared with about 16 times for a group of mega-cap AI companies. On a growth-adjusted basis, however, he calculated a lower ratio for SpaceX.
The $300 target is an analyst valuation rather than a guaranteed future price. From the Oct. 7 closing price of $167.60, reaching $300 would require a gain of about 79%.
SpaceX's operating results provide another part of the investment case. The company reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA increased 191% to $3.5 billion, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million. SpaceX also said it had $14.1 billion in contracted sales from cloud-services agreements and more than $6 billion in multiyear US government contracts for Starshield.
That growth is one reason SpaceX is increasingly being evaluated alongside AI stocks, even though its business remains substantially different from a semiconductor company such as NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA).
Can SPCX Return to Its $225.64 Record?
A return to SpaceX's June record would require the stock to gain about 35% from its Oct. 7 close of $167.60. There are several identifiable developments investors are watching, but none guarantees that SPCX will reach a new high.
One is Starship. Morgan Stanley's latest bullish view highlighted the company's upcoming Starship Flight 15 as a potential near-term catalyst. The previous flight achieved a milestone by reaching low Earth orbit and deploying Starlink satellites, according to reporting on the test.
Another is SpaceX's push into AI infrastructure. Reuters reported that the company is seeking approximately $40 billion in financing to acquire NVIDIA chips for data centers. The proposed package could include about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion of investment-grade debt, although the financing has not been finalized.
The size of that proposed financing is significant relative to SpaceX's existing operations. Reuters said the planned borrowing follows a $25 billion bond issuance earlier in the year and comes as companies across the technology industry seek increasingly large amounts of outside capital to fund AI infrastructure.
The strategy could give SpaceX another source of growth if its AI and cloud businesses generate sufficient revenue and profitability. It also introduces additional financing obligations, making execution and cash generation important factors for shareholders.
SpaceX's valuation therefore rests on more than its launch business. Starlink's subscriber growth, rocket reusability, government contracts, cloud services, and AI infrastructure are increasingly intertwined in the company's growth story.
The stock also has a relatively short public-market history. SpaceX only began trading on Nasdaq in June, leaving investors with limited historical data for judging how the shares behave through different market conditions.
At $167.60, SPCX has already recovered the entire decline below its $135 IPO price. But reaching the $225.64 record would require another significant advance, while Morgan Stanley's $300 target represents an even larger move.
Whether either level is reached will ultimately depend on SpaceX's ability to convert its investments in Starlink, launch infrastructure, cloud computing and AI into sustained revenue, earnings and cash-flow growth.
For now, the clearest fact is that SpaceX has recovered well beyond its IPO price. The next test is whether the business performance can justify a return toward the extraordinary valuation reached during its first week as a public company.