SpaceX Is About To Test The Power Of Passive Investing

SpaceX's June 12 IPO, priced at $135 per share and raising $75 billion, was the largest in market history, and the company briefly surpassed both Amazon and Microsoft to rank among the five most valuable publicly traded firms. SpaceX shares reached an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, just four days after the company’s market debut, before retreating and now trading around $153.

The company is now set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, less than a month after its record-setting public debut. Billions of dollars in mechanical buying from index-tracking funds may have to find their way into SpaceX shares.

The Next Wave Of SpaceX Buyers May Not Care About The Valuation

SpaceX is slated to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, but its path to this index would not have been possible under its previous rules. Under previous rules, a stock was required to trade on the Nasdaq for a minimum of three months before it could join the Nasdaq-100. 

However, under the current methodology, which took effect in May 2026, large Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) ranked within the top 40 index members now qualify for a fast entry and can be added after just 15 trading days.

Exchange-traded funds and mutual funds that track the Nasdaq 100, including Invesco's QQQ and QQQM, will now be required to purchase SpaceX shares to reflect the company's addition to the index. 

Interestingly, JPMorgan estimates SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion could attract about $4.3 billion in passive inflows into the comp. That is a major support line for a newly public stock, especially one with a limited trading history and a relatively small portion of its shares available to the public.

SpaceX’s IPO has already shown how fragile hype can be. However, passive demand from the Nasdaq 100 could help stabilize the stock just as early IPO excitement cools down.

The SpaceX Valuation Question That Won't Go Away

SpaceX is very much in the red, losing $4.9 billion last year, while all of the other companies that rank among the largest US-listed firms are profitable. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the company posted a net loss of $4.28 billion. At a price-to-sales ratio of 104.7x with negative profit margins, SpaceX's valuation dwarfs every other mega-cap, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, and Alphabet. 

American financial services firm Morningstar placed SpaceX's fair value estimate at $63 per share, less than half the current trading price. SpaceX still has a long way to go before it can be eligible to join the S&P 500, as a stock must be traded on a major US exchange for at least 12 months before it can be accepted into the index. 

SpaceX's earliest possible eligibility for the S&P 500 is mid-2027, and even then, it would need to clear the profitability requirement, and this might be a hurdle, considering the company has recorded cumulative losses since its founding.