SpaceX has gone from record IPO to valuation reality check in less than two weeks, with the stock losing momentum after a groundbreaking debut. The move is drawing fresh scrutiny from analysts and traders who say the initial surge may have been powered as much by scarcity and retail enthusiasm as by long-term earnings power. Now, reality is starting to set in as the momentum slows and the market begins to determine the real value of the stock.
SpaceX Begins Post-IPO Valuation Test
On June 11, 2026, SpaceX launched its initial public offering (IPO) at $135 per share for 555,555,555 shares, according to the company’s pricing release. The company later revealed that the underwriters had fully exercised their overallotment option, bringing total shares sold to 638,888,888. This brought the company’s gross proceeds to about $85.7 billion, according to a June 15, 2026, closing announcement, debuting at a record-breaking $1.77 trillion valuation.
Naturally, the IPO did what hot listings often do at first, and the stock price went crazy. SpaceX had closed its first day of trading on June 12 at a stock price of $161, up 19% from the offer price. The stock price continued to rise, eventually crossing $225 to reach a new all-time high on June 16 and reaching a $2.5 trillion valuation.
However, the early enthusiasm that has pushed the stock price to new all-time highs has not held up cleanly as the new week opened for trading. On June 22, SpaceX suffered a pullback that erased a great portion of its opening-week surge. The price crashed below $153 on Monday, amounting to a 40% decline from its $225 all-time high price, as shown in the chart below.
Market activity
Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX)=
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This decline could be evidence of profit-taking in the market, not just a rebalancing. SpaceX had sold only about 4% of its total shares in the IPO, leaving a relatively small public float to absorb huge demand. However, it was also reported that the company is set up with staggered lockups, which means more supply may enter the market later. As this new supply is expected to hit the market, it is no surprise that the stock price has begun to suffer its own share of volatility.
Value Proposition Is Not In Question
While the SpaceX stock price has retraced a fair portion of its gains, it does not eliminate the fact that it is a big company over time. In fact, the problem plaguing the company is actually whether the market got ahead of itself on valuation, and whether public shareholders are now paying the price for that enthusiasm.
For one, Morningstar analysts have previously questioned the validity of SpaceX’s trillion-dollar valuation, suggesting that the company is worth way less than that. The analysts warned that the opening price could be a trap and investors could end up suffering in the near term. This is because IPOs tend to struggle in the near term before balancing out in the market.
Morningstar analysts suggested that the real value could see the price go down by half. They point to historical performance data, which shows that most IPOs tend to crash as much as 55% in their first year of trading. While this may not play out exactly, it gives investors a lot to think about when it comes to how the SPCX stock could perform in the near-term.
The company’s true value proposition actually lies in its operations, as investor materials point to a business with multiple growth engines, including launch services, Starlink, and AI-related infrastructure. In its June 3 free-writing prospectus filed with the SEC, SpaceX said its 2025 revenue reached $18.7 billion. The company also revealed that it was making major investments in AI compute, launch infrastructure, and satellite constellations, with the recent Cursor AI acquisition deal being a major part of this.