Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's First FOMC: 99% Chance Of No Change, Bearish Outlook For Bitcoin, Stock Market ATHs

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is in focus today, June 17, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm for the first time since his appointment in May 2026. Expectations have continued to pour in, and the reaction of Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market to the outcome of the meeting is dominating discussions.

Bitcoin and stock market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision amid persistent inflation concerns and growing uncertainty around monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning approximately a 99% probability that policymakers will leave the current interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of the June 17 meeting. 

The gathering marks the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, at a time when futures markets are pricing in a near-certain pause in interest rates while equities continue trading at record highs. But despite expectations for no immediate rate changes, investors could nitpick comments from Warsh for clues regarding the timing of possible future interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin Traders Brace for Volatility Ahead of FOMC Decision

The forecasts lean heavily in favor of the interest rates staying between 3.50-3.75%. However, market analysts note that while this policy decision itself may be largely priced in, the accompanying comments could trigger volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the stock market. Several analysts have warned that Bitcoin could experience heightened volatility following the FOMC announcement.

This is not out of the ordinary, as crypto traders have increasingly focused on Federal Reserve policy due to Bitcoin being a risk asset. Hence, the tendency of investors to either enter or exit the digital asset could be greatly influenced by whether interest rates change or stay the same. Historically, shifts in interest rate expectations have triggered wild movements in the Bitcoin price, making each Fed decision a key driver for Bitcoin price action.

Stock Market Reaches New Highs Despite Inflation Concerns

Unlike Bitcoin and the stock market, which have continued to struggle, the stock market has continued its remarkable rally despite ongoing concerns about inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Major U.S. indexes recently touched fresh all-time highs amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may eventually begin easing policy. The strength of the stock market has surprised many analysts who anticipated a more significant slowdown in economic activity following the aggressive tightening cycle of recent years.

Despite leaning toward interest rates staying the same, if the Fed decides to reduce interest rates, it is expected to continue the rally. This is because it signals a better risk environment for investors, triggering more liquidity flowing into the market. A more dovish tone could provide additional support for the stock market, particularly in technology and growth sectors that are sensitive to interest rate expectations. In contrast to this, though, raising interest rates higher could trigger profit-taking after the recent rally.

All eyes are also on the FOMC announcement following the explosive entrance of the SpaceX IPO last week. The space exploration company has seen its stock price rise over 10% so far this week, reaching toward $3 trillion, and becoming the 5th-largest company in the world.

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